C.J. Stroud has set a new standard for rookie quarterbacks in the NFL, rewriting the expectations for first-rounders entering the league. Historically, it was uncommon for a rookie quarterback to excel both statistically and in terms of winning immediately. While some rookies showcased impressive stats or led their teams to victories, few managed to achieve both simultaneously.
However, the landscape has shifted with the emergence of players like Stroud. His exceptional performance has raised the bar for this year’s crop of rookie quarterbacks, who enter the league amidst heightened expectations following a record-setting draft. The 2024 draft witnessed a groundbreaking moment as six quarterbacks were selected within the first 12 picks, signaling the league’s emphasis on finding franchise quarterbacks.
With the stage set for these rookies to make an impact, NFL analysts, including NBC Sports’ Chris Simms, have weighed in on which first-round rookie quarterback possesses the best potential to follow in Stroud’s footsteps. Simms provided his breakdown, offering insights into each player’s strengths and areas for development.
Now, let’s delve into a comprehensive ranking of these candidates, assessing their attributes, potential, and the likelihood of replicating Stroud’s success:
1. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (No. 1 pick):
– Statistical Potential: Caleb Williams boasts an impressive track record, highlighted by his exceptional performance at USC where he secured the prestigious 2022 Heisman Trophy. His proficiency is evident in his remarkable touchdown to interception ratio of 72 touchdowns to just 10 interceptions across 26 games for the Trojans.
– Supporting Cast: Williams enters the NFL with a formidable arsenal at his disposal, including star wideouts D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, along with rookie sensation Rome Odunze. This talented trio provides Williams with ample opportunities to showcase his playmaking abilities on the field.
– Winning Outlook: Unlike many first overall picks, Williams joins a Bears team that showed promise in the previous season, finishing with a respectable 7-10 record, despite a rocky start. With the addition of Williams, coupled with the arrival of new offensive weapons like Allen, Odunze, and free-agent running back D’Andre Swift, head coach Matt Eberflus has a wealth of talent to work with in 2024.
– Playoff Contention: The combination of Williams’ skill set and the enhanced roster puts the Bears in a favorable position to compete for a postseason berth, even in the competitive NFC North division. With the potential to build on their recent progress, Chicago’s postseason aspirations seem well within reach.
2. J.J. McCarthy, drafted by the Vikings at the tenth spot, presents an intriguing case. While he didn’t put up eye-popping numbers at Michigan, his situation in Minnesota looks promising. With a talented receiving corps featuring Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, McCarthy has the opportunity to showcase his passing abilities. Moreover, under the guidance of head coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings have the potential to compete and win games, providing McCarthy with a conducive environment to thrive.
3. Jayden Daniels, Commanders (No. 2 pick)
Can Daniels get the numbers? Probably. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has been compared to former Washington QB Robert Griffin III, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year back in 2012 after taking home the Heisman. Daniels’ mobility should translate to the NFL, so he should pile up rushing yards and scores even if he struggles through the air initially. Austin Ekeler, Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are a solid stable of skill players to work with.
Can Washington win enough games? Probably not. The Commanders went 4-13 last season. Even after switching coaching staffs and adding a handful of impact defenders in free agency, it’s asking a lot to expect them to make the postseason. The NFC East has two regular playoff contenders in the Eagles and Cowboys, which will make things difficult for Daniels and Co. this season.
4. Drake Maye, Patriots (No. 3 pick)
Can Maye get the numbers? Probably not. At this point, Maye is facing an uphill battle to be the Week 1 starter. Veteran Jacoby Brissett was brought in as the ideal bridge quarterback, which will give Maye time to develop. Even if the UNC product does win the starting job, the Patriots aren’t exactly a rosy situation. At receiver, they’ll be relying on a veteran coming off a torn ACL (Kendrick Bourne), a promising but inexperienced second-year player (DeMario Douglas) and two rookies (Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker).
Can New England win enough games? Probably not. After going 4-13 last season, the Patriots spent free agency re-signing some of their best players. The new front office opted for continuity on the defense, which made sense given how that unit performed in 2023. But the offense failed to add the big-name weapon they sought (Calvin Ridley). Unless rookie head coach Jerod Mayo can work a miracle like DeMeco Ryans did in Houston last year, it’s likely to be another losing season in Foxboro.
5. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons (No. 8 pick)
Can Penix get the numbers? Barring an injury to Kirk Cousins, no. The $100 million veteran is the established starter going into this season, even though he’s recovering from a torn Achilles. If the 35-year-old Cousins has any sort of setbacks in his return, that could open the door for Penix. And on the off chance that he does see the field, Penix would rise even higher in these rankings. He has an array of skill weapons (Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts), but for now, he’s buried on the depth chart.
Can Atlanta win enough games? Yes. With either Cousins or Penix, the Falcons should be contending for the NFC South title. They went 7-10 last season with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke splitting quarterback duties. Now, with new coach Raheem Morris, Atlanta figures to improve defensively. Again, if Penix actually plays, he rises up this list. But with the assumption that he’s the No. 2 quarterback, it’s hard to place him above this spot.
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