Last week, I handed out offseason superlatives for teams in the NFC by noting the work each completed and what each seemed to leave behind over the past few months, and what all that could mean for the 2024 season.
Let’s switch gears and move to the AFC. Which team’s contention window might have closed before it ever truly felt open? Which team might have had its offseason set back by losing a positional coach? And which team should surprisingly be in the market for talent at the trade deadline in November?
We’ll start in Buffalo, where the Bills will have more new faces than you might have noticed:
The superlative: Team most likely to have your friend who casually watches be shocked in Week 1 when their favorite player isn’t on the team anymore
OK, this one’s a little wordy, but you get the idea: Beyond quarterback Josh Allen, much of the core of the Buffalo teams that won 58 regular-season games over the past five seasons is gone. Of the 12 players who played the most snaps on offense or defense for the Bills over that five-year span, six left this offseason: wide receivers Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs and center Mitch Morse on offense, and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer and cornerback Tre’Davious White on defense. A seventh, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, left in free agency last offseason.
The players from that core still in Bills uniforms are building blocks: Allen, offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, tight end Dawson Knox, corner Taron Johnson and linebacker Matt Milano. The big question for GM Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott will be whether any of the young players join them. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has already done enough and earned a significant extension, but can 2021 first-rounder Greg Rousseau make the leap many were expecting last season and develop into an upper-echelon pass-rusher? Will cornerback Kaiir Elam, who struggled as a rookie and missed most of 2023 with a foot injury, beat out Christian Benford for a starting job? Can tight end Dalton Kincaid and rookie receiver Keon Coleman be the focal points of the passing attack?
In what amounts to a retooling season, the Bills don’t have any alternatives beyond those players breaking out. Most of their signings were the sorts of moves Houston GM Nick Caserio typically makes, loading up on low-cost veterans to add depth on one-year pacts, with slot receiver Curtis Samuel as the lone exception. I like some of those moves — safety Mike Edwards and defensive tackle Austin Johnson are likely to be underrated contributors — but this is the least-imposing roster Buffalo has rolled out on paper since its breakout in 2019. The Bills are going to need that young talent to develop quickly to stay atop the AFC East.
The superlative: Team most likely to have inspired whiplash
The Dolphins seem to be speed-running the life cycle of an NFL organization. They started tanking in 2019 and were already a competitive team under then-coach Brian Flores by the end of the season. A year later, they posted a winning record. They’ve traded first-rounders for veteran talents such as Bradley Chubb and Tyreek Hill, drafted well, plugged holes in free agency and hired much-hyped coaches such as Mike McDaniel and Vic Fangio. This time a year ago, it felt like they were ready to take a leap into the elite of the NFL.
Now? After a season that again fell apart in December and January, it feels like they’re already on the way down. The wildly lauded hire of Fangio to run the defense failed to work out, leading Miami to part ways after one season. Cap constraints caused the team to move on from defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, cornerback Xavien Howard, edge rusher, Emmanuel Ogbah, guard Robert Hunt and linebackers Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel. Most of the Dolphins additions were veterans whose names might be bigger than their level of play at this point of their careers in wideout Odell Beckham Jr., safety Jordan Poyer and pass-rusher Shaq Barrett.
The Dolphins only have $1.8 million in cap space and still have a lot of work to do this offseason. The core of their excellent 2020 draft has become eligible for extensions. Receiver Jaylen Waddle and safety Jevon Holland should get market-value deals for their respective positions, and if edge rusher Jaelan Phillips should join them if he recovers from his torn Achilles. Miami holds fifth-year options on Waddle and Phillips, but waiting to get those deals done will only make its cap situation more difficult in the years to come.
The specter of what to do with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa also hangs over this franchise. The numbers are the numbers: He completed more than 69% of his passes last season and led the league in passing yards (4,624) . He ranked No. 1 in yards per attempt and passer rating the previous season. And yet, down the stretch, the Dolphins looked like they couldn’t get going on offense, culminating in a dismal performance in the brutal cold against the Chiefs in a wild-card round loss.
The going rate for quarterbacks in Tagovailoa’s tier has plenty of sticker shock. Would Miami want to give him the four-year, $212 million extension the Lions just handed Jared Goff? It’s tough to justify asking him to take anything less, given that he’s much younger than Kirk Cousins and more productive than Daniel Jones. This is a dangerous tier of quarterback to pay, and the Dolphins might take a step backward regardless of their choice. For now, Tagovailoa is set to play out his fifth-year option of $23.1 million, with more than $100 million in guaranteed on a potential extension riding on what he does next.
The superlative: Team most likely to buy in bulk
The Patriots landed their quarterback of the future in No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye and, in the long run, that decision will come to define their offseason. Around him, though, they seemed to shop more in quantity than quality. This was a team that came into the offseason realistically hoping to add a new starting quarterback, No. 1 wide receiver and starting left tackle.
Maye answers the first problem, but the Patriots seemed to otherwise throw darts at the wall to address the other issues. At wide receiver, they swapped out DeVante Parker for former Vikings third wideout K.J. Osborn and used second- and fourth-round picks on Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, respectively. Polk could emerge as a No. 1 — and JuJu Smith-Schuster is reportedly healthy after being limited by a knee injury last season — but this feels like an offense without a focal point at receiver.
Left tackle is even messier. After cutting Conor McDermott and letting Trent Brown leave in free agency, the Patriots signed former Steelers lineman Chukwuma Okorafor and drafted Penn State tackle Caedan Wallace in the third round. The only problem is both Okorafor and Wallace have spent their recent careers playing right tackle, meaning one will have to jump to the left side to protect Maye’s blindside as a rookie.
This isn’t the worst idea. Teams are often overconfident about their ability to land one player in a specific position, and so it’s sometimes better to try to draft multiple contributors at a position in the hope that competition or good fortune lands you starting-caliber talent. (The Packers seem to be building this way, for example.) If Polk emerges as a top wideout and the Pats give their left tackle some help with chips and double-teams, they’ll be fine. Just don’t be surprised if they’re back in the market for a left tackle next offseason.
The superlative: Team least likely to turn to offensive linemen off the street for the second consecutive season
If you checked out on the Jets’ season after the Aaron Rodgers injury last September, things didn’t get much better on offense. Quarterback Zach Wilson was benched, reportedly didn’t want to return as the starter because he was worried about getting injured and then was concussed when he returned to the field. Building a receiving corps around people who are green circle friends with Rodgers on social media didn’t work, as Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb failed to emerge beyond Garrett Wilson and fell off the active roster. Running back Breece Hall popped up with big plays at the beginning and end of the season, but free agent signing Dalvin Cook was one of the league’s worst backs and lost his job late in the season.
The New York offensive line was on another level. A group that looked paper-thin heading into the season lived down to expectations. Veteran left tackle Duane Brown made it through two games before going down with a hip injury; he played just 10 snaps the rest of the way. Tackle Mekhi Becton played 16 games but looked a lot like a tackle who had missed most of the prior two seasons with injuries. When guards Alijah Vera-Tucker and Connor McGovern both went down with season-ending injuries before November, the Jets were hopelessly beaten down up front.
In the end, 13 different offensive linemen started at least one game for the Jets. By the end of the season, they were starting players signed off practice squads, including Jake Hanson and Xavier Newman. With the 40-year-old Rodgers returning for what might be his final season in 2024, the Jets needed to upgrade both the quality and depth of their offensive line.
We’ll see how it goes once the season begins, but you can’t fault GM Joe Douglas for trying. Out went virtually everybody the Jets were relying upon last season beyond Vera-Tucker and Joe Tippmann, who will start at center. Douglas traded for right tackle Morgan Moses, signed John Simpson from the same Ravens team to line up at left guard and then made his big splash by adding Tyron Smith, who was arguably the league’s best left tackle by the pressure metrics from NFL Next Gen Stats a year ago.
Smith hasn’t played a full season in nearly a decade, so the Jets needed to build their roster as if he was going to play 13 games, not 17. Enter Olu Fashanu, for whom Douglas moved down and still managed to draft at No. 11 overall. Fashanu will be New York’s left tackle of the future. In 2024, he could start ahead of Moses at right tackle, fill in for Smith when needed at left tackle, serve as a right guard if Vera-Tucker isn’t ready to start the season with his Achilles injury or play swing tackle.
The Jets could still stand to add one more veteran interior lineman in reserve, but at the very least, everyone backing up at guard and center got to play meaningful snaps last season. Given the additions made at receiver, this offense looks much better around Rodgers than it did this time a year ago.
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