Why San Francisco 49ers will go to Super Bowl

Christian McCaffrey, an MVP finalist, showcased his exceptional skills by leading the NFL in rushing yards with an impressive 1,459. Notably, he faced the highest percentage (36.03%) of snaps with eight or more defenders in the box, as per Next Gen Stats. McCaffrey also topped the league in Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) with 349, boasting an average of 1.32 RYOE per attempt, second only to rookie Devon Achane.

 

Facing the possibility of the Lions stacking the box to challenge quarterback Brock Purdy, McCaffrey’s ability to consistently gain yardage, even against stacked defenses, adds a significant dimension to the 49ers’ offensive strategy. While McCaffrey may not secure the MVP title, his outstanding season could position him for something even greater—a potential Super Bowl MVP.


Jared Goff has shown a strong preference for operating in the middle of the field, evident in his 2023 season “QB Grid” by Next Gen Stats. When targeting throws between the hashmarks within the 0-10 yard range, Goff boasts an impressive NFL Passer Rating of 116.5, well surpassing the league average of 90.5. Additionally, on throws in the 11-20 yard range to the same area, Goff excels with an NFL Passer Rating of 125.0, significantly higher than the league average of 85.7. This highlights Goff’s effectiveness in attacking the middle of the field with accuracy and success.


Come Sunday, Jared Goff’s throws in the middle of the field will face scrutiny from Fred Warner, widely recognized as one of the most dynamic off-ball linebackers in the current NFL landscape. Drawing parallels earlier in the season, Warner was likened to a formidable force, akin to a “terrormorph” from Starfield, the highly anticipated video game by Bethesda. In football terms, Warner’s ability to swiftly cover ground and disrupt plays poses a significant threat to opposing offenses.


Much like Warner, who has the athleticism to not just play sideline-to-sideline against the run, but to carry receivers vertically and erase throws in the middle of the field. If Warner can take away those areas of the field from Goff, it will be a long day for the Detroit offense.


Despite being a significant midseason acquisition, Chase Young has experienced a relatively subdued season with the 49ers. While contributing 20 pressures and 2.5 sacks to the formidable San Francisco defense, Young often goes unnoticed during games. Given the Lions’ reliance on five-man protection schemes, a testament to their dominant offensive line, the 49ers’ defensive front faces a crucial challenge. The matchup between Nick Bosa and Penei Sewell promises to be a fierce battle among two of the game’s best, but in terms of impact, Young must prevail against LT Taylor Decker to tilt the game in the 49ers’ favor.

Jared Goff, the Lions’ quarterback, has demonstrated proficiency when operating in a clean pocket, boasting a commendable 79.9% On Target Rate – ranking him 10th among all NFL quarterbacks with 100 attempts in such conditions. However, the story changes under pressure, as Goff’s On Target Rate drops to 58.9%, positioning him 21st among the 26 quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts under pressure, according to Sports Info Solutions. The longstanding strategy against Goff has been to apply pressure, emphasizing the importance of Chase Young not only living up to the expectations set in the trade but also performing at the level befitting a second overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

 

 

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