In 2023, the Pittsburgh Steelers broke their pattern of selecting receivers, which they had maintained for two out of the last three years. Before that, the Steelers had consistently drafted at least one wideout in each of the preceding nine drafts, often targeting players in the middle rounds. Curt Popejoy of USA Today’s Steelers Wire recently linked the Steelers to another potential mid-round receiver prospect, specifically highlighting Texas A&M’s Ainias Smith. Popejoy suggested that drafting Smith could be a strategic move for the Steelers, potentially positioning him to fill the shoes of veteran receiver Allen Robinson.
“Ainias Smith is a do-it-all player who can play wide receiver, running back and as a returner,” Popejoy wrote. “He’s got elite quickness and change of direction and has a knack for big plays.”
During the 2023 season, Smith showcased his talent by recording 53 receptions for 795 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. Impressively, he maintained an average of nearly 16 yards per catch over his last 16 college games.
Last offseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers secured Allen Robinson for a minimal cost, engaging in a trade with the Los Angeles Rams that involved swapping seventh-round draft picks to acquire the veteran receiver.
However, Robinson’s on-field performance fell short of expectations, tallying only 34 receptions for a mere 280 yards. Despite his underwhelming production, Robinson’s contract is poised to impose a significant financial burden on the Steelers, as he is set to count as approximately an $11.9 million cap hit for the 2024 season.
The Steelers have the opportunity to free up $10 million against the salary cap by parting ways with Allen Robinson.
In the 2023 season, Robinson, like many of Pittsburgh’s offensive contributors, failed to meet expectations. Despite appearing in every game, he only managed to secure an average of 2 catches per outing.
Additionally, Robinson’s yards per reception dropped to 8.2, marking the lowest average of his career, trailing behind his previous career average by nearly 2 yards.
Under the potential influence of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, Robinson’s on-field opportunities may diminish. In Smith’s previous role as head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, his offensive strategy prioritized tight end involvement to a significant degree. In fact, the Falcons frequently deployed three tight ends for more offensive snaps than their second-ranked wide receiver in terms of snap counts. This trend suggests that under Smith’s guidance, the Steelers could see a shift in offensive emphasis away from wide receiver utilization, potentially impacting Robinson’s playing time.
In the Atlanta Falcons’ 2023 season, only one wide receiver, Drake London, managed to exceed playing more than 33% of the team’s offensive snaps.
Given the depth of receiving talent on the Pittsburgh Steelers’ roster, it’s conceivable that Smith may opt for increased usage of three-wide receiver sets in the upcoming 2024 season compared to his approach with the Falcons. However, it’s clear that his primary focus will be on ensuring ample targets for top receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, potentially relegating Robinson to a lesser role in the offensive scheme.
Although Robinson contributed effectively as a blocker for the Steelers in 2023, the team cannot afford to retain him if it means a decrease in playing time and diminished production compared to the previous season. Therefore, the more prudent course of action appears to be cutting ties with Robinson to realize a $10 million cap savings.
Could the Steelers Target WR Ainias Smith in 2024 NFL Draft?
The Steelers could potentially re-work Robinson’s contract to bring him back at a more affordable cap hit. But if that doesn’t happen, targeting a receiver in the middle rounds of the NFL draft makes sense.
Pittsburgh has found great success over the years in doing that. Johnson, Pickens, and Juju Smith-Schuster were all wide receivers the Steelers found on Day 2 of the draft.
There’s still two months until the 2024 NFL draft. But Smith is currently projected to be an early Day 3 prospect.
Pro Football Focus ranked Smith the No. 113 overall prospect set to be available in the 2024 NFL draft. Bleacher Report’s big board has Smith at No. 119 overall.
With the Steelers holding the No. 120 and 121 picks in the fourth round of the draft, they have an opportunity to explore alternatives to Allen Robinson, even if the option of Robinson returning on a more budget-friendly contract is under consideration.
While Smith may not offer the same level of blocking proficiency as Robinson, it’s worth noting that Smith is still a work in progress as a player. However, what he lacks in refinement, he potentially makes up for with his promising deep-threat potential, reminiscent of Robinson’s early career explosiveness.
Therefore, despite the differences in their skill sets, the Steelers should weigh the potential benefits of selecting Smith as a dynamic receiving option, especially given their current draft position and the opportunity to bolster their roster with young talent.
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